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Estimating number of existing Debian users


I've tried to craft an hypothesis about number of Debian users, from
apt-listbugs logs. I've analysed merkel.debian.org access logs. Since
etch was released, 30000 unique IPs were used to access
merkel.debian.org using apt-listbugs. According to popcon, 3% of all
Debian users install apt-listbugs. Let me add three simplifications to
the equation.

(A) popcon models Debian user installation behavior reasonably well. 

(B) A unique IP represents a single system (Even though DHCP may
change IP address over a month's period, NAT may share IP addresses).

(C) All users are using Debian etch, lenny, or sid. 

I can assume there are 1,000,000 Debian users worldwide. Does this
number sound big or small to you?

This is a wild extrapolation, so the number is pretty unreliable,
especially the usage of popcon is too small to be significant;
however, I do not know of a better way to estimate the number of
Debian users.

I've initially posted this info on my blog[1] entry, but I'm reposting
it here, since it is probably more interesting to a wider audience,
and interesting source of discussion, which a blog is not quite

[1] http://www.netfort.gr.jp/~dancer/diary/daily/2007-May-9.html.en#2007-May-9-21:13:02

dancer@{debian.org,netfort.gr.jp}   Debian Project

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