Re: Estimating number of existing Debian users
On Thu, May 10, 2007 at 12:41:32AM +0900, Junichi Uekawa wrote:
> I've tried to craft an hypothesis about number of Debian users, from
> apt-listbugs logs. I've analysed merkel.debian.org access logs. Since
> etch was released, 30000 unique IPs were used to access
> merkel.debian.org using apt-listbugs. According to popcon, 3% of all
> Debian users install apt-listbugs. Let me add three simplifications to
> the equation.
> (A) popcon models Debian user installation behavior reasonably well.
> (B) A unique IP represents a single system (Even though DHCP may
> change IP address over a month's period, NAT may share IP addresses).
> (C) All users are using Debian etch, lenny, or sid.
> I can assume there are 1,000,000 Debian users worldwide. Does this
> number sound big or small to you?
As you know, the Imperium has never been able to take a census ...
very interested to see what numbers come up :-)
as a broad suggestion, if you can put rough numbers on the number of
computers, and the number of users in the world, then that would help
to establish a ball-park.
netcraft counted debian as 25% of linux servers in 2005, and were
counting somewhere around 450,000 of them in 2004.
numbers in the 5-10% ballpark are often wheeled out for linux market
somewhere between 100 million and 10 billion people on the internet ...
1 million doesn't seem like an implausible number.
of those, there are 247 people on #debian right now :-)
as well as numbers for things like mailing list subs.