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Re: Estimating number of existing Debian users

On Thu, May 10, 2007 at 12:41:32AM +0900, Junichi Uekawa wrote:
> Hi,
> I've tried to craft an hypothesis about number of Debian users, from
> apt-listbugs logs. I've analysed merkel.debian.org access logs. Since
> etch was released, 30000 unique IPs were used to access
> merkel.debian.org using apt-listbugs. According to popcon, 3% of all
> Debian users install apt-listbugs. Let me add three simplifications to
> the equation.
> (A) popcon models Debian user installation behavior reasonably well. 
> (B) A unique IP represents a single system (Even though DHCP may
> change IP address over a month's period, NAT may share IP addresses).
> (C) All users are using Debian etch, lenny, or sid. 

You cannot accept both A and C at the same time:
according to popcon, 64% use Etch, 18% use testing/sid, and 18% use
something else (14.4% old testing snapshots, 4% Sarge and 0.6% Woody)
but the data are strongly biaised toward recent releases, so the number
of Sarge install remaining is probably much higher than 4%.

> I can assume there are 1,000,000 Debian users worldwide. Does this
> number sound big or small to you?

I would expect at least 10 millions computers running Debian.
(My own estimate is 225 millions but it seems a bit much).

In other news, it seems we have already passed the peak for Etch.

Bill. <ballombe@debian.org>

Imagine a large red swirl here. 

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