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[Debconf-team] Math on meals



Hi all,

Following up on the meals discussion, I've run some numbers against the
database to see what our sponsored food situation looks like.

Please see the attached spreadsheet for my best estimation. (XLS format for
purposes of sharing with PSU.)

For estimation purposes, I am ignoring those who have said they will be
arriving before lunch on August 22.  These are just people who haven't put
in an arrival time (did we ask them for this?), and are therefore
incorrectly being counted towards the previous day's meals.  The first meal
being provided by non-volunteer sponsored attendees is dinner on the 22nd -
realistically, people aren't going to be arriving until the afternoon
anyway due to timezones.

This puts an 85% committment level for sponsored attendees at 81 people per
meal, and a 75% committment at 72 people per meal.  If these numbers turn
out to underestimate actual meal consumption (i.e., if all sponsored
attendees eat a particular meal even though we've only expected 75% to do
so), that's still only 37 additional people eating, which is well within
even the revised figure of 50-60 that PSU has now given us for the max
overage that we should target.

What I forgot to include in this report is how far over we would be if
*everyone* who's registered chose to eat meals on campus, sponsored and not. 
But we currently have 269 people registered; not all of these (252) are
reconfirmed; some of them are non-sponsored and buying their own meal plans
(I don't know how many).  If we genuinely had everyone try to eat dinner in
the cafeteria, that could be as many as 180 people beyond our committment. 
But I think this is an unlikely outcome which we don't need to hedge against
by raising our committment - especially since we would have to hedge well
above our total sponsored attendee count to cover this case.

-- 
Steve Langasek                   Give me a lever long enough and a Free OS
Debian Developer                   to set it on, and I can move the world.
Ubuntu Developer                                    http://www.debian.org/
slangasek@ubuntu.com                                     vorlon@debian.org

Attachment: sponsored-diner-counts.xls
Description: MS-Excel spreadsheet

Attachment: signature.asc
Description: Digital signature


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