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Debian Status Quo and the Current Ballot



On Wed, Oct 11, 2000 at 11:22:45PM +1100, Hamish Moffatt wrote:
> There are four possible paths:
> 
> Ballot 1         Ballot 2      Outcome
> AJ's Amendment   GR
> ===================================================================
> Yes              No            No change
> Yes              Yes           No real change (non-free still kept)
> No               No            No change
> No               Yes           Big change.

This grid is an oversimplification because not all states are equally
likely.  Ever taken a class in probability?

Ballot 1         Ballot 2      Outcome
AJ's Amendment   GR
===================================================================
Yes (50%)        No  (50%)     No change
Yes (50%)        Yes (50%)     No real change (non-free still kept)
No  (50%)        No  (75%)     No change
No  (50%)        Yes (25%)     Big change.

You want David Welton to vote "Yes" on the first ballot because, while he
is certain to vote "no" on the second since he "doesn't want any mucking
about done with Debian", it is to your tactical advantage if people yes for
AJ's amendment, making the passage of YOUR preferred form of mucking about
more likely (and the passage of John Goerzen's resolution -- which you
oppose -- impossible).

If David votes no to AJ's amendment, he contributes to a LOWER likelihood
of any ultimate change, because the unmodified GR will be harder to pass.

Again, proponents of the status quo are better off voting no/no, because
AJ's resolution is statistically more likely to pass than John's.

(It is also extremely unlikely that, if AJ's amendment fails, the bloc of
dissatisfied voters who wanted to see it win are going to vote for John's
amendment.  I haven't yet seen anyone who wants to pass a resolution just
for the sake of passing it; the two blocs here are ideologically opposed
and practically all proponents of AJ's amendment can be expected to vote
against John's resolution if it is the final form used on the ballot[1].)

[1] If they vote rationally.

-- 
G. Branden Robinson             |       What influenced me to atheism was
Debian GNU/Linux                |       reading the Bible cover to cover.
branden@debian.org              |       Twice.
http://www.debian.org/~branden/ |       -- J. Michael Straczynski

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