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Re: Advice on system purchase

On 30/10/12 05:02, Stan Hoeppner wrote:
> On 10/29/2012 9:17 PM, Celejar wrote:
>> On Mon, 29 Oct 2012 21:06:36 -0500
>> Stan Hoeppner <stan@hardwarefreak.com> wrote:
>>> On 10/29/2012 6:08 PM, Celejar wrote:
>>>> Interesting. Google shows that there was a thread on /. a year ago
>>>> about the question of ARM on the desktop, but a quick skim shows no
>>>> obviously compelling reason why it won't ever happen. Thoughts?
>>> There a dozens of reasons.  First and foremost, ARM sells millions of
>> Thanks much for the detailed explanation. [I assume you really mean
>> 'billions']. 
> No, I mean millions.  One billion chips per year would equal 1 for every
> 7 humans on the planet, and that's simply impossible.  Over 3 billion
> people have never used an electronic device.  That's almost half the
> Earth's population.  Do the math.
Your initial conditions are awry: you need to start by assuming multiple
chips _per person_ in the developed world. Mobile phones; televisions;
routers; cameras; PDAs; central heating controllers; washing machines,
to name a few. Then there's probably 10 per car. Now you do the math!

>> I don't fully understand / agree with everything you
>> write, but very interesting nevertheless. [I'm not conversant enough in
>> these issues to challenge you on anything you write.]
> It's simple economics:  If one could make a decent amount of profit
> pushing an ARM based desktop CPU into the market, they'd do it.  They
> haven't done it, nor will do it, because there's no money to be made,
> only losses, as history has shown us.  Both IBM/Motorola and DEC lost
> money and failed to drive adoption of their RISC chips in desktops.
> Apple dropped PPC for Intel, eliminating the last RISC CPU in desktop
> machines.  Given this history, if you're an exec at ARM, would you
> consider such a push viable?  Let alone profitable?  No, you wouldn't.

Well, maybe the've got more insight than you:


Now what do your "simple" economics have to say?

You also seem to be unaware that ARM does not manufacture anything; it
merely licenses designs to chip foundries.

The foundations of all your arguments are at best shaky!

Tony van der Hoff  | mailto:tony@vanderhoff.org
Ariège, France     |

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