Dirk Neumann wrote on 21/04/2007 09:36:
> On Tue, 17 Apr 2007 00:59:35 -0700
> Matt Taggart <taggart@debian.org> wrote:
>>For the folks that these images are for, the ones far off the internet, I have
>>no idea how many CD images lenny will require,
>
> let's remember: Potato required 3 CDs, Woody 7 and Sarge 14 and Etch 21.
> Also, we find Woody on 1 DVD, Sarge on 2 and Etch on 3 DVDs.
> So Lenny will require 7 DVDs, Lenny+1 14 and Lenny+2 21 DVDs. You can
> multiply these numbers with 7, and you will have the count of CD-isos.
> (Lenny 49, Lenny+1 98 and Lenny+2 147)
You make it look like the growth is exponential when it is in fact
rather linear over time. Looking at the number of CDs and the release
dates reveals that the growth is between 2.5 and 3.0 CDs/year with an
average of little more than 2.7 CDs per year since release of potatoe up
to release of etch. So if Lenny releases within a year from Etch, it
will have at most 24 CDs or 4 DVDs. If it releases within 24 month after
Etch (i.e. by April 8th, 2009), it will have 27 CDs or still 4 DVDs
(though only marginally below the barrier for the 5th DVD). Let's assume
that the average growth accelerates by one addition CD every second year
(year 1: 3 CDs, year 2: 3 CDs, year 3: 4 CDs, year 4: 4 CDs, year 5: 5
CDs and so on), we will have:
CDs DVDs
April 2008: 24 4
April 2009: 27 4 Lenny?
April 2010: 31 5
April 2011: 35 6 Lenny+1?
April 2012: 40 6
April 2013: 45 7 Lenny+2?
April 2014: 51 8
April 2015: 57 9 Lenny+3?
April 2016: 64 10
April 2017: 71 11 Lenny+4?
April 2018: 79 12
April 2019: 87 13 Lenny+5?
April 2020: 96 15
April 2021: 106 16 Lenny+6?
April 2022: 117 18
April 2023: 128 19 Lenny+7?
April 2024: 140 21
April 2025: 152 23 Lenny+8?
So that would be 71 CDs / 11 DVDs ten years from now. Quite different
from your doomsday scenario of Lenny releasing with 49 CDs (which I
expect for Lenny+2) and Lenny+2 releasing with 147 CDs (which I expect
for Lenny+8).
Actually, I don't think at all that the rate will accelerate like that.
cu,
Sven
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