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[Debconf-team] Accomodation analysis of Le Camp



Subsequent to my previous mail where I noted that details about the LeCamp
accomodations have never been laid out on this list (though they may have
been linked to the list), I've had IRC conversations with various folks that
have given me a much clearer view of things.  I think it may be useful to
lay some of this out.

The purpose of this mail is informational.  I'll confine my editorialization
here to a single remark that, having seen the full details of the room
configurations, I think there is still cause for concern about the
accomodations.  I hope this mail will serve as a point of departure for
discussing these concerns and working through them.

The details about the rooms at LeCamp are available here:

  http://wiki.debconf.org/wiki/DebConf13/LeCamp/Rooms

And details about off-site accomodation are here:

  http://wiki.debconf.org/wiki/DebConf13/AlternativeAccomodation


Exposition:

There are a total of 57 rooms available at LeCamp; some of these are
designed for communal housing, some are set up only for sleeping bags (not
beds).  For the moment I'm assuming bed vs. sleeping bag is not an issue:
some people will not mind sleeping bags, some people will not mind having
roommates, and some people will mind both but there are some rooms that
would meet their needs too.

If we assumed a maximum room allocation of 2 people per room, that would
accomodate 110 simultaneous attendees (4 of the rooms are single rooms).

If we assumed a maximum room allocation of 4 people per room, that would
accomodate a maximum of 171 attendees (44 people in double rooms, 3 in a
triple room, 4 in single rooms, the rest in quad).

Per [1], this falls short of the maximum per-night accomodation demand of
every DebConf since DebConf 7, with the exception of DebConf 12 which
probably had reduced attendance due to geographic location / travel
logistics.

DebConf 7, which had the lowest peak accomodation demand of any of the
recent European DebConfs, also had the highest percentage of attendees who
were *not* in sponsored accomodation.  This is presumably due to some
combination of local attendees and broad access to local non-sponsored
accomodation, the latter of which is not generally available in Vaumarcus.
Excluding the cost-prohibitive Chateau, there seem to be only on the order
of 30 rooms available in a 10 km radius, with space for ~65 people.

Assuming enough people are willing to pay per-night private room rates for
the week, 171+65 == 236.  This falls somewhere in the middle of the pack for
peak attendance at DebConf (DebConfs 7, 11 were higher; DebConfs 8, 9, 10,
12 were lower).

Therefore, I think we can expect that we will not be able to accomodate
everyone who wants to attend DebConf 13 in a room of 4 or less.

If we assume some number of attendees are willing to take sponsored communal
accomodations, but most are not, and we reserve the two largest rooms (1x26
sleeping bags, 1x32 sleeping bags) for this with the rest of the rooms
"undersubscribed" with a max of 4 occupants, this gives a maximum of 221
spaces on-site, plus the ~65 that may be available in hotels etc. in the
surrounding area.

Based on this, I think it's safe to conclude that accomodation space /
comfort *will* be the limiting factor for a DebConf in Le Camp; and in any
event, I would expect on-site attendance to fall well short of the 325
nominal spaces available.

What I don't know is by how *much* it will fall short.  I do know that at
each DebConf where the standard accomodation was 4-per-room, there have been
some number of attendees who have paid for private (1-person or 2-person)
accomodation.  Is it possible to mine the data, to get some idea of ratios
of people attending DebConf who are willing to have bunkmates vs. people who
have insisted on private rooms?  Otherwise, we don't really have a model of
what the accomodation limit is for the "typical" DebConf attendee, and we
aren't really making an informed decision about whether holding DebConf at
LeCamp is the right thing to do.

-- 
Steve Langasek                   Give me a lever long enough and a Free OS
Debian Developer                   to set it on, and I can move the world.
Ubuntu Developer                                    http://www.debian.org/
slangasek@ubuntu.com                                     vorlon@debian.org

[1] http://rkd.zgib.net/http/debconf/historical-room-statistics.txt

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