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Re: IPv6 adoption

On Sun, 16 Jul 2000, Florian Lohoff wrote:

> The demand for network addresses will increase exponentially in the
> next 50 years and I will experience a shortage in IPv6 addresses
> in my lifetime (I am now 25).

Hm, I actually doubt that. With IPv6 there are enough addresses to go
around, but there probably will be shortages for TLAs and private ISP
routing fields [at much larger ISPs]. Non-routed end users should
effectively have a limitless supply of addresses.

A 'subnet crunch' would only effect ISPs and their ability to deploy new
routers (I presume to service new areas) and is not an insurmountable
problem without changing the addressing structure.

Since each end-user will see a shared 64bit pool of addresses, and their
devices will all come with a factory installed Globally Unique 64 bit
number they will be able to have as many devices as they want on the

If you think we will run out of IPv6 address space, then we must first run
out of MACs for devices, which seems exceedingly unlikely, we simply
cannot produce devices that fast! To run out of 48 bit MACs in 75 years
(lets say about 95 years after the first MAC was given out) would require
a production rate of about 48 thousand devices/sec, non-stop. 64 bit MACs
are about 394 million devices/sec. 

If each 48 bit MAC device resulted in a profit of only 1 dollar, then the
'GNP' for those companies would be about 370 billion dollars/year (30% of
the entire Canadian economy, or about 10x the total sales of CISCO).


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