Re: Some thoughts on a fortune
On 11/14/2001 09:05:59 AM Mike Dresser wrote:
>> Saw this in fortunes:
>>
>> Imagine that Cray computer decides to make a personal computer. It has
>> a 150 MHz processor, 200 megabytes of RAM, 1500 megabytes of disk
>> storage, a screen resolution of 4096 x 4096 pixels, relies entirely on
>> voice recognition for input, fits in your shirt pocket and costs $300.
>> What's the first question that the computer community asks?
>>
>> "Is it PC compatible?"
>>
>>
>>
>> You know, that was written like.. how long ago? And letsee.. we have
the
>> processor, ten times as fast, we have the ram, by ... well, some people
>> have five times as much in their machines. We have the disk storage,
>> sometimes fifty times more. There's almost half decent voice
recognition
>> software
>> out there.
>> Won't fit in the pocket, and doesn't cost 300 bucks, but it's not THAT
far
>> off either.
>>
>> But. Where's our high resolution screens?
Assumes the quotation has useful meaning. If it "fits in the pocket" it
can't really have a screen more than perhaps 6 cm wide or long. Think
cellphone screen. As a sweeping generalization, most people have trouble
seeing anything smaller than 0.1 mm. So, a screen with 0.1 mm resolution
and 4096 pixels wide would have a physical width of about 41 centimeters,
which is not really pocket sized anymore. Unless you have a fold up screen
there is no sense in a 4096 pixel pocket sized display.
An obnoxious reply to the quote would of course be that if Cray made that
palmtop, it wouldn't be battery powered, it would have a plug on the back
for 30 amps of three phase 440V and require a liquid cooling system.
Another way of looking at it, is my three year old palm pilot with 10 meg
memory expansion card comes within 1 to 10 percent of those various specs,
and it meets all my needs, so what is to gain by upgrading? I'll never
know the difference if it sorts my address book in 1 ns instead of 1 ms.
That's why there's been approximately no technological progress in palmtops
for a couple years, no demand.
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