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Re: Assumptions about population



Hi all,

For what it's worth, I took a fairly exhaustive look at methods of measuring the use of free/libre open source software and found a relatively weak scientific record. Some research uses browser identification or downloads, or rougher signals like what's in various containers/clouds, what's where in the dependency chain, how many 'stars'/followers in revision control systems, etc. An opt-in automated survey like popcon is quite good, especially given the competing approaches.

What is the ultimate goal of the measurement task (i.e. this is a classic response from an academic -- it's always complicated to measure things, and what's your research question :D)?

But, truly, the best estimation strategy will vary by the goal.

-Kaylea

On Fri, Aug 26, 2022 at 7:23 PM Paul Wise <pabs@debian.org> wrote:
On Fri, 2022-08-26 at 13:55 +0000, c.buhtz@posteo.jp wrote:

> are there any existing assumptions about the population of Debian
> users. How many do we have?

In addition to the popcon data, there are various stats/monitoring of
the Debian download mirrors.

https://wiki.debian.org/Statistics#mirrors

> the Debian update servers can give a hint about it no matter
> that they don't store IPs.

This would still underestimate the number of Debian installs, since
many of them just do not update (see the popcon versions table for eg),
are offline or only get updates from a local mirror or apt proxy.
Also many users use a secondary mirror not run by Debian.

There are also many Debian derivatives, including private ones and also
many derivatives don't gather any user/download statistics.

> Debian is so old I assume there where others before me with the same
> questions. Maybe someone did an assumption about the real population
> of Debian users and presented a method.

I can't recall any talks about this at DebConf, maybe take a look at
the metadata archive though, something might jump out.

https://salsa.debian.org/debconf-video-team/archive-meta

--
bye,
pabs

https://wiki.debian.org/PaulWise


--
(pronouns: she/her)
PhD Candidate, University of Washington Dept. of Communication
Community Data Science Collective, http://www.communitydata.science

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